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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|